High possibility
Speaking at the virtual 2021 Davos World Economic Forum in January, Albert Bourla, Pfizer's CEO noted there was a "high possibility" that current coronavirus vaccines would not be effective against new strains of the virus in the future.
He was one of four speakers at a panel discussing the need for collaboration between businesses and governments to combat future threats to human health.
"It's a very high likelihood that one day that will happen," Bourla said.
The CEO revealed that newer versions of the Pfizer vaccine were already being worked on. The goal is for those shots to have the same 95% efficacy against the coronavirus as Pfizer's current shot.
Bourla also said Pfizer was working toward speeding up vaccine research and development. He wants to cut the time from recognizing a pandemic-scale infectious-disease threat to getting a vaccine authorized to 100 days or fewer — a timeline even shorter than the 300-day goal put forth last year by the Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed.
He also emphasized that any vaccine created in a sped-up process would still need to meet the same high standards of regulatory scrutiny to ensure the public is confident in the vaccine.
Though the initial outlook for Johnson & Johnson's single-dose shot seemed promising, its overall efficacy is at just 66%. It's less effective against the B.1.351 variant first identified in South Africa. US-based Novavax's vaccine showed 89% efficacy in trials in the United Kingdom, where another more contagious variant has been identified, but dropped to under 50% in its small South Africa trial.
The Results are in
What about Pfizer versus the South African variant?
Well, at the time of the forum, there was no independent study done on their vaccine's effectiveness against B.1.351, but the company later released results showing that their vaccine worked against lab-made "pseudoviruses" engineered to have the same mutations as the variants first found in the UK and South Africa.
In April, however, a small scale study done by an Israeli lab sent shock waves through the scientific community, and Pfizer was the lamb to the slaughter.
In its fight against the coronavirus, Israel vaccinated the majority of its people with the Pfizer vaccine. A team of scientists from the Tel Aviv University and the Clalit healthcare organization felt it would be best to do a follow-up study on those inoculated to measure the vaccine's effectiveness against both the UK and South African variants. The Israeli study is noted as a first of its kind real-world study.
The researchers tested the swabs of 150 Israelis who tested positive for Covid-19 even though they had been vaccinated.
According to a Times of Israel article, the study revealed that B.1.351 (South African variant) was most prevalent amongst the vaccinated individuals compared to persons who were not vaccinated.
"... the prevalence of the South African strain among vaccinated individuals who were infected despite their inoculation was eight times higher than its prevalence in the unvaccinated infected population. Though the number of such infections among the vaccinated was relatively small, the findings indicated that this variant was far more successful in getting through vaccinated individuals’ defenses than other strains" (Times of Israel).
The research showed that the South African variant, compared to the original strain and the British variant, is quite able to break through the vaccine's protection.
Interestingly, the Tel Aviv research appears to corroborate an earlier study from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, which found that the vaccine was less effective against the South African variant. It drew its conclusion by analyzing blood samples, while this current research is based on actual sequenced test results.
Both studies call into question Pfizer's own recently released findings that claimed that in South Africa, where this strain originated, its vaccine was 100% effective.
Mutations are normal and will happen
Though this is news we do not want to hear, we must be aware that it is normal for viruses to mutate or acquire small changes to their genetic code as they reproduce, and are passed on from one host to another. The mutations that help viruses grow stronger will eventually become the dominant strain(s) and crowd out the other weaker versions.
In March (2020), just a couple months after the coronavirus was discovered in China, a mutation called D614G emerged that made it more likely to spread. It soon became the dominant version in the world.
Earlier this year (January 2021), biologist Trevor Bedford of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle wrote on Twitter:
"The fact that we’ve observed three variants of concern emerge since September suggests that there are likely more to come."
One was first identified in the United Kingdom and quickly became dominant in parts of England. It has now been reported in at least 30 countries, including the United States.
Soon afterwards, South Africa and Brazil reported new variants. By January of this year (2021) researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles had announced that they discovered a new variant that was responsible for one-third of COVID-19 cases in that city and most likely the cause of a recent surge in cases.
India's new variant
Then a couple month ago (2021), the world learned of India's double mutant strain that is currently spreading like wild fire among the country's population. Initially, the Indian government had labeled it a 'variant of concern' but denied that it was the reason for the upsurge in cases in March (BBC News: Coronavirus: 'Double mutant' Covid variant found in India). Now however, with this surge proving to be the deadliest yet, Reuters reports that India leads the world in the daily average number of new coronavirus related deaths, accounting for one in every 3 deaths reported worldwide each day. Reuters also noted that the country is reporting 375,179 new infections on average each day, 96% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on May 8 (Reuters COVID-19 Tracker).
What makes this variant more dangerous is that there is what is called a double mutation of this strain's spike protein. Both the L452R and E484Q spikes have mutated and according to the BBC, Indian virologist Shahid Jameel believes the double mutations make this variant much more effective at infecting persons, bypassing the immune system's defenses.
He said:
"... double mutation in key areas of the virus's spike protein may increase these risks and allow the virus to escape the immune system".
In fact, India's health ministry admitted that the "[double] mutations confer immune escape and increased infectivity."
As of May 12, 2021, the WHO revealed that this variant has so far been found in 44 countries, besides its country of origin.*
What should you do? What can you do?
The best thing you can do is to build up your immune system so that even if you are vaccinated or unvaccinated and contract COVID-19, your body will be strong enough to combat this virus. Though Pfizer-Biontech and other vaccine makers are scrambling to create the ultimate vaccine that may possibly be able to provide long term protection against the current and any emerging strains, you still need to secure your own health. Social distance, wear your mask and sanitize/wash hands thoroughly. Make sure to also take your vitamins, eat well, exercise and take care yourself overall.
All the best to you my readers. I hope you found this information useful to you. God bless!
References:
Jeffay, Nathan. 'Israeli data shows South African variant able to ‘break through’ Pfizer vaccine'. Times of Israel. Published 10 April 2021. https://www.timesofisrael.com/real-world-israeli-data-shows-south-african-variant-better-at-bypassing-vaccine/
Ghosh, Palash. 'Pfizer Covid Vaccine Protects Against South African Variant, ‘Highly Effective’ Against Disease For Six Months, Updated Trial Data Shows'. Forbes. Published 1 April 2021. https://www.forbes.com/sites/palashghosh/2021/04/01/pfizer-biontech-vaccine-protects-against-south-african-variant-highly-effective-against-disease-for-six-months-updated-trial-data-shows/?sh=9b702796ff99
BBC News. ' Coronavirus: 'Double mutant' Covid variant found in India.' Published 25 March 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56507988
Reuters. COVID-19 Tracker. India: The latest coronavirus counts, charts and maps. https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/india/
*The Hindu. 'Coronavirus | Indian COVID-19 variant found in at least 43 countries: WHO.' Updated 12 May 2021. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/coronavirus-indian-covid-19-variant-found-in-44-countries-who/article34539276.ece
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