COVID-19: Could the Omicron variant be the beginning of the end of the pandemic? Here's what the experts have to say.

Author: S. Gordon-Jeffery

To date the omicron variant has been detected in over 150 countries around the world, and according to the WHO's chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus this variant is so far the fastest spreading variant, moving "at a rate we have not seen with any previous variant". [1]

Though omicron seems to have mastered the art of infectivity, scientists have confirmed that it is a more milder strain of SARS-CoV-2. Many have therefore enthusiastically said that this variant signals the end of the pandemic. After Omicron (which now has four (4) subvariants by the way) we will see a reduction in infection, and cases will be much milder going forward. Even the PNP's opposition minister of health and wellness is touting omicron as a "blessing in disguise". In the Jamaica Observer article titled 'Poll finds majority of Jamaicans against vaccine mandate' Guy is quoted as saying:

"...omicron is almost a blessing in disguise in that a significant number of persons in the country would have contracted omicron without being part of the official numbers – without them knowing it either". [2]

Dr. Guy also noted that it is possible that a greater number of the Jamaican population has contracted the variant during the fourth wave than is officially reported by the government's records, and therefore it is quite possible that unvaccinated persons who caught it could have developed immunity from the Covid infection. It is therefore a blessing, considering the low vaccination rate of the country, currently 23% of the population is fully vaccinated.

He says:

"Those persons with the flu, which may have been COVID but were not tested and may have contributed to the spread of the virus in the population and you're developing natural immunity so it is almost a blessing in disguise". [3]

In recent months scientists have admitted that unvaccinated persons who have contracted the omicron strain are much more protected than a person who is vaccinated who never caught Covid.

In fact, a recent study in South Africa found that omicron antibodies successfully protected against the more deadlier delta variant (yes, delta still a keep), which could imply that this super variant could provide protection against all other strains out there by becoming the dominant strain, eliminating all the others and in ushering the endemic phase of Covid infections.

But, Stephane Bancel, CEO of Moderna, while agreeing that it is a possibility that we could be seeing the beginning of end of the pandemic, is not so sure that omicron will usher in that end.

80 / 20 Rule

Speaking on CNBC's 'Squawk Box Asia', Mr. Bancel said, "I think that is a reasonable scenario", when asked about views that the COVID-19 pandemic may now be on its way out of our lives.

When asked about omicron he said, "There’s an 80% chance that as omicron evolves or SARS-CoV-2 virus evolves, we are going to see less and less virulent viruses." 

But Bancel isn't putting all his bets on omicron or other milder strains to come, being the death knell of SARS-CoV-2. 

He also said there’s another "20% scenario where we see a next mutation, which is more virulent than omicron."

He continued his point:

"I think we got lucky as a world that omicron was not very virulent, but still we are seeing thousands of people dying every day around the planet because of omicron." 

Omicron specific vaccine

In related news, Moderna announced in January that it had started a clinical trial to study the safety and efficacy of a new booster shot created specifically to target the omicron variant.

The first participant in the trial had already received a dose of the new booster shot, according to the company. The company said that it expects to recruit about 600 adult participants ages 18 and over to be split between two groups.

Moderna expanding into Asia

The company further revealed it plans to expand into Asia where there is now a surge in coronavirus infections caused by omicron. 

"The reason we want to expand in Asia is the importance of that region," Bancel explained.

"The fact that this virus is not going away, as we’ve been saying since almost the beginning — this virus is going to stay with humans forever, like flu and we’d have to live with it."

Disclosing that he finds Asia’s economic expansion "very exciting," the CEO said the company intends to open new subsidiaries in Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong.

This expansion comes as Moderna "continues to scale up the manufacturing and distribution of its COVID-19 vaccine and future mRNA vaccines and therapeutics," the U.S. biotech company said in a statement.

Moderna’s messenger RNA vaccine is currently not available in Hong Kong, which recently saw a surge in Covid cases. Bancel said the company is currently "working with authorities to get it authorized."

Seems as though Moderna has big plans for the future.

But what does the leading world health body, the WHO have to say about a near end of the pandemic?

Not over?

Head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, agrees with the Moderna CEO that we are not at the end. He said in a statement that the threat from the COVID-19 virus is "nowhere near over" and warned in January that it’s dangerous to assume the pandemic is approaching its end because of omicron. Instead, he cautioned that new variants will likely emerge as omicron did spreading rapidly across the world.

Even Dr. Anthony Fauci, White House chief medical advisor, while not revealing too much of his opinion on the topic said it was still an "open question" about whether the Omicron variant will mark the final wave of the pandemic.

The truth is, we just don't know yet. It could be the beginning of the end of Covid, and we pray it is, but we just don't know if the next variant will be milder or more virulent than omicron. One thing we do know? Some studies reveal that though omicron variant is more contagious, overall it doesn't make people as sick as delta does. While we look forward to the end of the pandemic, and omicron may be the 'blessing in disguise' Dr. Guy speaks about, we'll just have to wait and see.

In the meantime?

1. Physical distancing in public spaces

2. Build up our immune system with sunlight, rest, exercise and eating healthy.

3. Stay home if you are ill

And...?

4. Wear a mask.

Thanks for reading. Have a blessed day. 😊

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Terms & Definitions

1. Infectivity - the ability of a virus to produce or transmit infection.

2. SARS-CoV-2 (SARS Coronavirus 2) - Severe Acute Respiratory System Coronavirus 2